Intlanganiso yokuqala yezomthetho ye-TSMC ngo-2021 iyakulothusa ilizwe. UMongameli Wei Zhejia ubhengeze ukuba inkcitho yalo nyaka iyakuba phakathi kwe-US $ 25 yezigidigidi kunye ne-US $ 28 yezigidigidi, ukonyuka kwama-45% ukuya kuma-62% kunonyaka ophelileyo, kwaye iphezulu kakhulu kuneebhiliyoni ezingama-21 ebezilindelwe ekuqaleni ngotyalo-mali lwangaphandle. Kujikeleze idola.
Abantu abothukileyo bezomthetho bahlala bebuza imibuzo malunga nenkcitho yemali, "Ngaba kungenxa yokukhutshwa kwe-Intel?" "Ngaba ivela kumandla e-kinetic ee-smartphones okanye ze-HPC (i-High-Performance Computing)?" "Ngaba oku kubandakanya indleko zokwakha iifektri eMelika?"
Namhlanje, "i-TSMC ingena kolunye uluhlu lokukhula okuphezulu." U-Wei Zhejia uqinisekile, egxininisa ukuba i-5G kunye nokusebenza okuphezulu kwekhompyuter (i-HPC) kuyenzile inkqubo ye-TSMC ephambili ukuba ibenamandla, kwaye i-HPC izakuzisa ukukhula okubalulekileyo kunye nexesha elide kwi-TSMC. Amandla okuqhuba kweTSMC lelona galelo likhulu ekukhuleni kwengeniso eyomeleleyo. Kuqikelelwa ukuba ukusukela kulo nyaka ukuya ku-2025, iqondo le-TSMC lonyaka lokukhula komxube liya kufikelela kwi-10-15%.
Ngaphaya koko, i-80% ye-US $ 20 yezigidigidi iya kusetyenziselwa iinkqubo eziphambili zokuvelisa ezinje nge-3nm, 5nm kunye ne-7nm.
"Uphefumle ukukhululeka," utshilo umhlalutyi welinye ilizwe emva kwentlanganiso yeFasuo.
Ngenxa yokuba wafunga kwingxelo yophando yakutshanje ukuba i-TSMC izakuthatha i-odolo enkulu ye-Intel kwiminyaka emibini kwaye inyuse kakhulu ixabiso ekujolise kulo i-TSMC.
Kodwa nge-14, i-Intel ngesiquphe yabhengeza ukuba ichonge i-VMware CEO uPat Gelsinger (Pat Gelsinger) njenge-CEO entsha, ethatha indawo ye-CEO yangoku u-Bob Swan, oxhasa ngamandla ukukhutshwa kwemveliso. Ngenxa yoko, ixabiso lesitokhwe le-Intel lenyuka ngaphezulu kwe-10%.
Umhlalutyi wothuka xa wabona iindaba: "Qalisa iqhina! Kuphelile!" Yena kunye nabanye abadlali beshishini babekhathazekile okokuqala. Kungenzeka ukuba amandla e-Intel angaphakathi alondoloziweyo adityaniswe nebhodi yabalawuli ekulweni, ngethemba lokuba ayizukukhuphela iprosesa kwi-TSMC. Isidima se-Intel.
Kodwa ngaphezulu kweeyure ezilishumi kamva, emva kokuba i-TSMC ibhengeze inkcitho eyinkunzi engaphezulu kokulindelwe ngumzi mveliso, kwathi qabu.
Kuba, ukuba iodolo ye-Intel eya kwi-TSMC iyahluka ngokwenyani ngenxa ye "coup d'etat", "i-TSMC inokuba ibinovalo kakhulu phezolo, kwaye kufuneka icothiswe. Ayizukubhengezwa ngoku (iindaba zokwanda kwefektri enkulu). ” Wagweba.
Nangona kunjalo, i-TSMC ayikaze iyeke ii-odolo ze-Intel.
Umzekelo, xa uZhan Jiahong weMorgan Stanley Securities ebuza ukuba ngaba ukuphindeka kwenkcitho kulo nyaka kubangelwe kukukhutshelwa kwee-Intel CPU?
U-Wei Zhejia uphendule ukuba asithethi nto malunga nabathengi abathile kunye nemimandla ethile, "kodwa inkcitho yenkcitho isekwe kwiimfuno zexesha elide ze-5G kunye ne-HPC, kunye noluvo ngokubanzi olubonakaliswa yile mfuno."
Umhlalutyi wachaza ukuba i-HPC kusapho luka-Wei Zhe ibhekisa kwii-odolo ze-Intel. Ngapha koko, kwicandelo lekhompyuter elisebenza kakhulu, eyona mveliso ibalulekileyo-yelifu, ngaphezulu kwe-90% isebenzisa iiprosesa eziphambili ze-Intel.
Ukuphindaphinda ubuqaqawuli, ukuqala kulo nyaka ukuya ku-2025, izinga lokukhula komdibaniso wonyaka we-10% ~ 15%
I-TSMC ikwakhankanye imbali kabini kwinkomfa: Inkcitho ye-TSMC eyinkunzi nayo inyuke kakhulu ngo-2010, yaza yazisa ngomyinge wokukhula komyinge we-15% ukusuka ku-2010 ukuya ku-2015, ngaloo ndlela kusekwa isiseko sempumelelo yeTSMC iminyaka emininzi.
Eli lelona phepha lidumileyo le "Intsomi kaZhang Zhongmou".
Wayenethemba malunga nemfuno yexesha elizayo yee-smartphones nje ukuba abuyele kwisikhundla segosa eliyintloko. Phantsi kwenkcaso yabalawuli abazimeleyo, wagqitha kuzo zonke izimvo kwaye wayiphinda kabini inkcitho eyinkunzi ngo-2010 ngesiquphe, kwaye ekugqibeleni wavumela i-TSMC ukuba isuse abachasi bayo kwaye ilawule. Icandelo leziseko.
"Oku kunyuka kuthetha ukuba iTSMC inethemba kakhulu." Kunyaka ophelileyo, uHou Mingxiao, intloko yophando kwisebe lezobuchwephesha laseAsia le-CLSA, eliqale labiza ixabiso lesabelo le-TSMC le-500 yuan, nayo yavakalisa "ukumangaliswa". Uthe ukuba akukho ukuzibophelela kwabathengi kunye nentsebenziswano ecacileyo, i-TSMC ayizukuthatha sigqibo.
U-Hou Mingxiao uthe xa uZhang Zhongmou andise kakhulu inkcitho kwi-2010, itekhnoloji ibingeyoyokuqala. Yayingumbono ogcwele ukungaqiniseki. Kodwa ngoku, "i-TSMC ibikwindawo ekhokelayo kwihlabathi kwaye inokubonakala okuphezulu. Ngoku imeko yokhuphiswano icacile. Wonke umntu usemva kwakhe. Ke kufuneka abenedatha yokwenza iinqununu zizithembe ukwenza njalo, kwaye Amathuba okuphumelela ayahambelana noko. phezulu! "
Ingxelo yophando kaBernstein iqikelela ukuba kwi-2023, i-Intel iya kukhupha i-10% ukuya kwi-30% ye-CPU, izise i-5% ukuya kwi-10% yokukhula kwemali kwi-TSMC.
Liphi iliza elilandelayo? Ukukhula okukhulu kwe-HPC, ukutshaya kweemarike ezizenzekelayo
Ngaphaya koko, ii-odolo ze-Intel ayisiyiyo kuphela inkxaso exhasa ukukhula okumangalisayo kwenkcitho yeTSMC.
"Sibona amathuba oshishino olomeleleyo kumaqonga amane okukhula kweekhompyuter ezikumgangatho ophezulu, izixhobo ze-elektroniki zezithuthi, i-Intanethi yezinto kunye neefowuni ezikrelekrele," utshilo uWei Zhejia.
Igosa eliyiNtloko lezeMali kwi-TSMC uHuang Renzhao ucacisile ukuba ingeniso yekota yesine ixhamle ikakhulu ekusungulweni kwee-smartphones ze-5G kunye nezicelo ezinxulumene ne-HPC, ezizise imfuno enamandla yenkqubo ye-TSNC ye-5nm. Kwikota yesine yonyaka ophelileyo, ingeniso ehlanganisiweyo yayiyi-361.53 yezigidigidi ze-yuan, ukonyuka konyaka kwe-14%, umyinge wenzuzo opheleleyo yayiyi-54%, emva kwirhafu yenzuzo yayimalunga ne-142.77 yezigidigidi ze-yuan, kwaye inzuzo iyonke yesabelo yayiyi-5.51 yuan.
Ukusuka kwimbono yexesha elide, u-Wei Zhejia wakhankanya ukuba i-HPC yeyona nto iphambili ekuqhubekeni nokusebenza kwe-TSMC. Abathengi abasuka kwizicelo ezahlukeneyo bazama ukufumana eyona khompiyutha isebenzayo ngobugcisa obahlukeneyo. Ngokusekwe kwitekhnoloji ekhokelayo ye-TSMC, inokuba kwindawo efanelekileyo yokuqonda imeko yeli shishini, i-2020 ukuya kwi-2025 iya kuba nenqanaba lokukhula ngonyaka eli-10% ukuya kwi-15%.
Icandelo lezithuthi nalo liyala: Nangona intengiso yezithuthi ibibuthathaka ngo-2018 kwaye ichaphazeleke nangakumbi sisifo sesithsaba esitsha kunyaka ophelileyo, nesibangele ukuba abathengi be-TSMC banciphise ibango kwikota yesithathu yonyaka ophelileyo, u-Wei Zhejia uthe i-TSMC iqale ukubona iimpawu zokuchacha kwishishini kwikota yesine yonyaka ophelileyo.
Uthe ngenxa yokubuyela kwimfuno yokuhanjiswa kweemoto, ukubonelelwa ngamandla kuya kubonakala ngakumbi. "I-TSMC izakuyenza eyona nto iphambili kwaye iqhubeke nokusebenza ngokusondeleyo kunye nabathengi beemoto zethu ukuxhasa ukufunwa kwamandla."
Ukongeza, iifowuni eziphathwayo nazo zongeza ngokuthe ngcembe ukufudumala: kulo nyaka, inani lee-smartphones zehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba likhule nge-10% xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka ophelileyo, kwaye isabelo sentengiso see-smartphones ze5G siya kunyuka ukusuka kwi-18% kunyaka ophelileyo ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-35% kulo nyaka. Umxholo wesilicon wee-smartphones ze-5G nawo uya kwanda xa kuthelekiswa neefowuni ze-4G smart.
Utyalomali lwangaphandle: wonke umntu ngowakhe, iTSMC inelizwi lokugqibela!
U-Wei Zhejia ulindele ukuba intengiso ye-semiconductor (ngaphandle kwememori) iya kukhula malunga ne-8% ngo-2021, kwaye umzi mveliso wokukhusela uzakukhula malunga ne-10%. Ngokwedola, i-TSMC iqinisekile ukuba iyakonyusa ipesenti yabakwishumi elivisayo, ebhetele kunentengiso iyonke.
Ngokobuchwephesha, i-TSMC 3nm iceba ukuqala ukuveliswa kwetyala ngo-2021, kwaye imveliso enkulu kulindeleke kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka ka-2022. "Siqinisekile ukuba itekhnoloji yeTSMC 3nm iyakuba yenye yetekhnoloji ebalulekileyo nehlala ihleli, utshilo u-Wei Zhejia.
Umhlalutyi waseBernstein uMark (UMark Li) ukholelwa ukuba yi-TSMC kuphela okwangoku enenkqubo ephambili efunekayo kweli hlabathi. Ukuba i-Intel isabeka i-3nm ebalulekileyo kwi-TSMC, i-3nm iya kuba yeyona nkqubo inamandla ye-TSMC. Indawo yenkampani ibaluleke kakhulu.
"Ngoku kunjalo ngoku, iTSMC yatsho!"U-Hou Mingxiao wenze le ngxelo, "Uthe yonke into ibaliwe, kuba wonke umntu ngumthengi wakhe."