Ngokwengxelo yakutshanje ekhutshwe yi-IC Insights kwishishini le-IC, kubandakanya iindidi ezintlanu eziphambili zokukhula kwemveliso ye-IC kumazwe angama-33, imakethi yemoto ye-NAND kulindeleke ukuba ikhule nge-19% ne-DRAM nge-12% ngo-2020. Okwesithathu ngokulandelelana. Kwangelo xesha, ngokwengxelo ekhutshwe yi-DRAMXchang ngoDisemba wonyaka ophelileyo, amaxabiso akhoyo ngoku eemveliso ezinkulu ze-chip sele ziqale ukukhuphuka, kunye nolindelo lokubuyiswa kwemakethi yememori lukhule kakhulu. Ukusebenza kwabavelisi abaphambili abathathu beememoronductor kubonise iimpawu zokubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo. I-Nokia Electronics (apha ekubhekiswa kuyo njenge "Samsung"), i-SK Hynix kunye neMicron Technology (ekubhekiselwe kuyo njenge "Micron") ngabona bavelisi baphambili beenkumbulo zeDRAM kunye neNAND chips.
Oko ukuthunyelwa kwenkampani kugcino ngo-2018, iziphumo zekota zeshishini ezi-semiconductor zeenkampani ezintathu zonke ziye zancipha kakhulu, kodwa emva kokuhla, iinkampani zamkele iindlela ezintathu zesintu ezikhulu (kwiinkcukacha, jonga ukuba iyawa ngakumbi na. "Amanyathelo amathathu okonyusa ezitshixo azinakucima ukonakala ekusebenzeni.")
Ngehlobo lowama-2019, ukuthengiswa kweenkampani zokugcina eziphambili zawa ngokukhawuleza. Kwikota yakutshanje, ezimbini zeenkampani ezintathu eziphambili (i-Samsung kunye neMicron) zikhule kancinane ngokuthelekiswa nekota edlulileyo. Ukuthengisa kwe-SK Hynix kusanciphile, kodwa umda wehlile. Ukuphela konyaka ka-2019, inzuzo yokusebenza inokunyuka ukusuka kwikota edlulileyo.
Ukugcinwa kwe-Q3'2018 i-IC ifikelela encotsheni yayo kwaye ngo-2019 yahlangana no "Waterloo"
Ukusukela ngo-2018 ukuya esiphelweni ka-2019, ukusebenza kweenkampani ezinkulu zokugcina zehlabathi kuye kwanamava eenguqu ezinqamlezayo ezifana nokujikeleza. I-Samsung kunye ne-SK Hynix ifumene irekhodi lokuthengisa kwikota yesithathu ka-2018 (Julayi ukuya kuSeptemba 2018) kunye neMicron kwikota yesine ka-2018 (2018). Nangona kunjalo, ukukhula okwalandelayo kwakungekho lwaneliseko, kwaye ukuthengisa kunye nokufumana inzuzo yawa kakhulu njengezonyusi ezikhutshiweyo.
Emva kokubetha irekhodi eliphezulu, leliphi inyathelo elilandelayo? I-semiconductor ye-Samsung kunye nentengiso yememori yehle nge-24% kunye ne-26% ngokwahlukeneyo ukusuka kwikota edlulileyo, ukuthengisa kwe-SK Hynix kwehle nge-13%, kwaye ukuthengiswa kweMicron kwehle nge-6%. Imemori ekhokelayo ye-Semiconductor i-Samsung yayiyinkampani yokuqala yokuwa kakhulu. Yintoni ekufuneka ichazwe apha kukuba ixesha lokuqala lekota yokuqala yengxelo yeMicron isusela ngoSeptemba rhoqo ngonyaka.
Ingeniso yokusebenza nayo yehlile kakhulu ngekota. Inzuzo yokusebenza ye-semiconductor ye-Samsung yehle nge-43% kwikota yangaphambili, inzuzo yokusebenza kwe-SK Hynix yehle ngama-32%, kwaye inzuzo yokusebenza kweMicron yehle nge-12%. Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwale kota, ixabiso laseDRAM lehlile, kunye nenkumbulo yedanyaza ye-NAND, esele ihlise ixabiso, iye yenzakalisa kakhulu inzuzo.
Makhe sijonge iziphumo zekota elandelayo. Imihla yokuphehlelelwa kwe-Samsung kunye ne-SK Hynix isusela kuJanuwari ukuya ku-Matshi ka-2019, kwaye imihla yokukhutshwa kweMicron isusela ngoDisemba ngo-2018 ukuya kuFebruwari ka-2019. Ngekota nganye, ukuthengiswa kwe-Nokia Electronics kwehle nge-23% (semiconductor) / 26% (inkumbulo ), I-SK Hynix yehle ngama-32%, iMicron yawa ngama-26%, kwaye onke nge-20%. Inzuzo yokusebenza isebenza kubi. Bacuthwe ngama-47%, ama-69% nama-46% ngokwahlukeneyo.
Ngenxa yoko, ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor ye-Samsung yehle kakhulu kwiipesenti ezingama-60 kwiikota ezimbini, kwaye inzuzo yokusebenza kwe-semiconductor yawa kakhulu kwi-30%. Intengiso ye-SK Hynix nayo yehla yaya kuma-60% encopho yayo kwaye inzuzo yokusebenza yehle nge-20% kuphela. Ukuthengisa kweMicron kwehle ngama-70% encopho yayo kwaye inzuzo yokusebenza yehla yaya kuma-50%.
Ukuthengisa kwikota yamva nje kukhuphuke kancinci ukusuka kwikota edlulileyo
Oku kwehla kuqale ukucotha phakathi ku-2019. Xa ujonga iziphumo zekota zamva nje ezipapashwe yinkampani nganye, ungabona ngokucacileyo ukuba izinto zitshintshe njani. Kwiziphumo zika-Samsung zika-Epreli-Juni ka-2019 (Q2 2019), ukuthengisa kunyuke okokuqala kwikota ezintathu. Ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor kunyuke nge-11% kwaye ukuthengiswa kwememori kunyuke nge-7%. Iziphumo zeMicron ukusuka kuJuni ukuya ku-Agasti ka-2019 (ikota yesine ka-2019) ibonise ukuba intengiso inyuke okokuqala kwikota ezine. Ukunyuka nge-2%. Ukusukela ngo-Epreli ukuya kuJuni ka-2019 (ikota yesibini ka-2019), ukuthengiswa kwe-SK Hynix kwehle nge-5% ngenyanga-ngenyanga, kodwa ngereyithi enye.
Lilonke, ukuthengiswa kukhuphukile. Nangona kunjalo, inzuzo yokusebenza isebenza nangoku. Ukusuka ngo-Epreli ngo-2019 ukuya kuJuni ka-2019 (ikota yesibini ka-2019), i-Samsung semiconductor inzuzo yokusebenza yehle nge-17% kwikota yangaphambili, kwaye inzuzo yokusebenza kwe-SK Hynix yawa ngama-53%. Ngexesha lekota kaJuni ukuya ku-Agasti ka-2019, inzuzo yokusebenza kweMicron yehle ngama-37% ngonyaka-ngonyaka.
Ibango lemveliso zokugcina i-DRAM kunye ne-NAND Flash ithathe
Iinkampani ezintathu eziphambili zeememiconductor zeememori zineemveliso ezimbini eziphambili. IDrum kunye neNAND flash. Iindlela zabo ezisisiseko zezi zilandelayo. Ngokwembali, imfuno ye-bit ye-DRAM kunye ne-NAND flash ibisanda. Umgangatho wokukhula kwememori yokukhanya kwe-NAND uphezulu, ngelixa izinga lokukhula kwe-DAM liphantsi. Ngokomndilili, imeko yakutshanje yeyokuba inkumbulo ye-NAND flash memory ye-30% ukuya kwi-40% ngonyaka, kwaye i-DRAM ixabisa malunga ne-20% ngonyaka.
Ngokwembali, ixabiso lokuthengisa eliphakathi (ASP) le-DAM kunye ne-NAND flash sele iwile. Kwi-Flash ye-NAND, inqanaba lokuhla likhulu, ngelixa i-DAMU, inqanaba lokuhla lincinci. Ixabiso lememori yokukhanya ye-NAND ye-NAND okhulayo okwethutyana ngo-2017, kodwa ixabiso ngokusisiseko laqhubeka ukuhla. Amaxabiso e-DRAM ahlala enyuka kwaye ehle. Ukususela ngo-2017 ukuya kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka wama-2018, amaxabiso aqhubekile enyuka. Ukususela esiphelweni sika-2018, amaxabiso aqale ukwehla. Nangona kunjalo, ngo-2019, amaxabiso e-DRAM aqala ukuhla azinza, kwaye amaxabiso eNAND enyuka kancinci.
Ngaphezu koko, kwidatha yengxelo yemali yekota yamva nje, sinokubona ukuba inzuzo yokuthengisa kunye nokusebenza kweenkampani ezintathu ezikhulu ziye zanda. Ukuba le meko iqhubeka, ishishini le-NAND flash liya kuphuhlisa kwicala elisempilweni.
I-IC Insights ikwacacisile ukuba ngonyaka ka-2020, ukukhula kwe-NAND flash kunye ne-DRAM kulindeleke ukuba komelele njengoko uqhagamshelo lwe-5G kwiselfowuni, iziko ledatha kunye neeseva zekhompyuter zelifu, ukuthengisa kwezithuthi kunye nezemizi-mveliso kunyuka, ubukrelekrele bokufunda, ukufunda okunzulu kunye nenyani yokwenyani.